March Like a Tunisian: Egypt gets its groove back

For me, Egypt has always been the great tease of democratization in the Middle East.  The most populous Arab country, with a relatively strong liberal tradition, Egypt is attractive for democracy promotion advocates for both its regional significance and its potential to develop.  There are relatively strong opposition voices and a widely read independent press.  An uncertain transition in leadership is fast approaching with 30-year President Hosni Mubarak in failing health.  Furthermore, the United States, due to its crucial economic and military support of the Egyptian regime, has more leverage there than in perhaps any other Arab state.

If one follows the news from Egypt and speaks with the opposition, it can seem as if Egypt is perpetually on the brink of revolution.  It may well be the case that it is, but until the present no amount of abuse by the government or the police has been enough to actually cause a major uprising.  The Mubarak regime has effectively, if clumsily, divided and subdued its opponents and maintained just enough control to continue ruling (enormous rents extracted from the United States have enabled this to a great extent).  Naturally most analysts and many Egyptians are pessimistic about the prospects for any positive change in the status quo, which continues on in defiance of logic and even – in the case of Mubarak’s own lifespan – the laws of nature.  

The "Day of Anger" and subsequent mass demonstrations emerge from this dismal milieu.  The result of several weeks of planning by activists and promotion through Facebook and word of mouth, the protests corresponded with Police Day.  Once a national holiday that marked an occasion in 1952 when Egyptian police resisted British attempts to crush Egypt’s independence movement, Police Day more recently has become a symbol of the dominance of the security state and the brutality that sustains it.  Protestors all around the country gathered in massive numbers to express opposition to the presidency of Hosni Mubarak and his son’s possible succession. 

Protests have continued each day since January 25.  The police have begun to crack down on demonstrators, arresting hundreds -- perhaps even thousands -- of dissidents.  While the streets were apparently quieter on Thursday, demonstrators are preparing another round of protests for Friday, which could force the regime into a corner if they are large enough.  The security services are well aware of this approaching confrontation, and they are ominously preparing for it.

Meanwhile, calls for Mubarak's resignation and the end of the NDP regime have multiplied.  Even Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei of the National Association for Change -- whose reluctance to play a more prominent role in the Egyptian opposition has irked activists -- has announced that he will lead an interim government if he is invited to do so.  While he was in Vienna when the protests began, he returned to Cairo on Thursday afternoon to lend his full support to the protests.  

There is no question that these protests are extraordinary – some are even saying they are the largest since independence.  And while none of this amounts to a revolution yet, there is an aura of destiny in these events, perhaps because of Ben Ali’s recent ouster from Tunisia.  Indeed, the Tunisian example has emboldened regime opponents and many are wondering out loud if Egypt can stage an uprising of its own.  There are numerous reasons why such an uprising would be far more difficult in Egypt, not the least of which is its enormous military which has every reason to side with Mubarak and not with the protestors.  The Egyptian government seems unlikely to fall the way Ben Ali did -- that said, two months ago Tunisia looked far more stable than Egypt, and nobody could have precisely predicted what has occurred since then (many, including myself, have felt this was coming, but nobody could have guessed how sudden it actually was).

Though it seems that Mubarak is poised to hang on for now, that does not mean that he will.  Something feels different about this moment; the protesters’ numbers, their diverse backgrounds, their courage against the police, their explicit calls for an end to the regime, and the presence of a figure in ElBaradei who can lead them all point to something momentous. 

This upheaval may not be the end of Mubarak and the NDP, but it is probably the beginning of the end.  It could be years before the current autocracy falls, but it will not recover its full strength even if it does win back control of the streets.  Ossified, ineffective, and unresponsive, the Mubarak government is entering its final stage.  How much longer we must wait before it ultimately runs its course is yet to be seen.