One of the common themes of Middle East politics is that Arab autocracies survive. Nobody in Las Vegas is taking bets on when these regimes will fall, and for good reason – the only sensible bet is that they won’t ever.
Or so we are told. This week analysts, dissidents, and casual observers alike watched in shock as social unrest in Tunisia catalyzed the downfall of 23-year President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, who fled the country in a move that has already drawn comparisons to the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. Suddenly, in a matter of days, one of the most tightly controlled and apparently intractable Arab regimes fell under popular pressure. Perhaps even more surprising to some analysts, the protests have been almost entirely non-violent – even though security forces have attacked crowds with live ammunition and killed dozens – and there has been no strong Islamist presence, at least none discernible from the outside. Tunisia was considered one of the most repressive regimes in the Middle East, which placed it high in the running for most repressive in the world. Ben Ali’s micro-managing authoritarianism crushed the media and the Internet, controlled the economy with notorious levels of corruption, and stifled any form of true political opposition. Six months ago it seemed to be one of the most stable and immovable of all the Arab autocracies.
Yet the whole thing crumbled with such remarkable speed that governments throughout the region must be watching these events with alarm. Tunisia was often seen in the West as a model for North Africa – its economy was relatively successful (though this is often exaggerated, and the recent riots finally proved that many parts of the country are alarmingly poor) and it maintained cordial, uncontroversial relations with the Western powers. Perhaps the ultimate problem is that Ben Ali was too heavy-handed in repressing opposition. There has been no revolution in Algeria, where riots also broke out last month, because in fact riots are quite common there and they are usually tolerated. The Egyptian regime has managed to keep opposition weak by allowing a modicum of dissent and limited participation, while continuing to manipulate all the levers of power. Even after shamelessly corrupt elections this fall, Egyptians have been content to voice their discontent, and there has been no Jasmine Revolution (one of the names I’ve been hearing for the Tunisian uprising) there.
It is difficult to predict what will happen next in Tunisia. Things are happening very quickly right now, and there are mixed messages coming from the military and what remains of Ben Ali’s government (most recently, it seems the Speaker of Parliament has taken over the interim presidency, in accordance with the Tunisian constitution). Protests are now turning into out-and-out chaos, with looting and violence reported across the country. The lack of legitimate political opposition means there is no clear leader for the protesters, and it is unclear if the army will side with them or with the ruling party, the RCD (Constitutional Democratic Rally). I will withhold my own predictions for now, but it is safe to say that this is far from over, and it will be very interesting to see how the situation develops now that Ben Ali is gone.
There are a lot of very knowledgeable people commenting on this, most of them more versed in Tunisian affairs than I am. I have listed a couple of links below for some insightful commentary and reporting on the situation – anyone interested in Middle East affairs will want to check them out.
In the past few days, more has been written on Tunisia in the mainstream media and blogs than in the past few years, so there is not really much more for me to say. The one thing I would add to the larger discussion is that, though everyone is shocked at the Tunisian revolution (and it does feel great to say that), we should expect social unrest in the Arab world to continue. Citizens of the Arab states are currently dealing with several decades of woefully incompetent government that cannot provide basic services and freedoms to the people and has little interest in doing so. Entrenched autocracies seek to perfect the one thing they were ever good at – holding onto power – while their populations clamor for change. The latest stirrings of discontent in Algeria, Egypt, and Tunisia have now led to the apparent downfall of one of these regimes. And while it is probably still smart to bet on regime survival, over time that bet becomes increasingly risky. Without democratic reforms and greater economic opportunities, more unrest, not less, is to be expected. Arab autocracies are very good at maintaining control, and their methods of doing so have become ever more sophisticated. Yet, ultimately, they are bucking the odds. A stew of discontent and desperation is ready to boil over throughout the region. In the absence of meaningful reform, upheavals such as that in Tunisia may become the rule, not the exception.
For some more reading on Tunisia and the region:
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