Egypt is essentially a police state, and power is concentrated in the hands of only a few. Yet to a foreign visitor it seldom seems that anyone is in control. Police are nearly ubiquitous, but they seem totally unable to direct traffic and even less able to impose order on the crowded streets of cities like Cairo and Alexandria. The military and security services usually operate below the surface; at the very least they do not harass foreigners, making it difficult to judge at times just how pervasive they really are.
To a certain extent this image is a fiction -- Egypt's society is tightly controlled in all its vital political aspects, and ordinary Egyptians are constantly subject to the harassment and repression of the police, unlike most temporary visitors such as myself. Still, it is also a reflection of the Mubarak regime's strategy to diffuse and control its opposition. The regime permits some open criticism, and uses rigged elections to offer political incentives for the opposition to cooperate with them. This creates a veneer of pluralism, when in fact the real mechanisms of power remain strictly in the hands of the ruling party.
While perceived chaos has always favored the regime, today real chaos is its only opportunity to stem a popular uprising and retain dominance. After a week of enormous protests, the police and the military have been unable so far to quell unrest through violence (though they are still trying in some areas). Mubarak's midnight speech on Friday offered a new cabinet and the first Vice President since 1981 in an effort to placate the crowds. Unsurprisingly, the protestors -- who have been calling for Mubarak to leave and the whole government to be eviscerated -- were not satisfied.
Protests continue today (follow Al-Jazeera's live blog here, or the Guardian's here), and Mubarak has few options left. He was unable to appease the protestors, and he has been unable to cow them with force either. The only viable option left for him is to rob the protests of their mission and their momentum by allowing chaos to reign in the streets. Indeed, this began on Saturday and has continued into today, as police and the army have withdrawn from residential areas and have allowed (encouraged?) gangs of thugs to loot stores and homes and attack ordinary citizens. In a parallel to Tunisia's uprising, neighborhood posses have formed to defend their communities from roving bands of looters and criminals.
To what degree the government is responsible for these mobs is uncertain, but it is clear that they are allowing the violence to happen in a bid to undermine the protests through chaos. Reports from all across the country indicate that police and the army have disappeared from the streets, leaving citizens to defend themselves. This seems to be Mubarak's only remaining option to stay in power; nothing else he has done thus far has worked.
It is unlikely that Hosni Mubarak can convince his public that his leadership is still better than anarchy, but if protestors have to stay home to defend their families, they cannot protest. This will obviously not solve the problem, however. What Mubarak does not seem to understand, or at any rate what he refuses to acknowledge, is that these protests are about him and his government. There is no bargaining with a people that are fed up with decades of incompetence, corruption, and disinterest in their needs and aspirations. Egypt reached a nationwide tipping point this week -- protestors will not settle for anything less than Mubarak's ouster. He is ready to dig in and fight, and I do not doubt he will use all tools at his disposal to remain in power. What happens next is anyone's guess -- but I am nearly convinced now that Mubarak is finished. If this turns out to be the case, then we will have arrived at a seminal moment in the history of the modern Middle East, and an extraordinary opportunity to transform the region.
To a certain extent this image is a fiction -- Egypt's society is tightly controlled in all its vital political aspects, and ordinary Egyptians are constantly subject to the harassment and repression of the police, unlike most temporary visitors such as myself. Still, it is also a reflection of the Mubarak regime's strategy to diffuse and control its opposition. The regime permits some open criticism, and uses rigged elections to offer political incentives for the opposition to cooperate with them. This creates a veneer of pluralism, when in fact the real mechanisms of power remain strictly in the hands of the ruling party.
While perceived chaos has always favored the regime, today real chaos is its only opportunity to stem a popular uprising and retain dominance. After a week of enormous protests, the police and the military have been unable so far to quell unrest through violence (though they are still trying in some areas). Mubarak's midnight speech on Friday offered a new cabinet and the first Vice President since 1981 in an effort to placate the crowds. Unsurprisingly, the protestors -- who have been calling for Mubarak to leave and the whole government to be eviscerated -- were not satisfied.
Protests continue today (follow Al-Jazeera's live blog here, or the Guardian's here), and Mubarak has few options left. He was unable to appease the protestors, and he has been unable to cow them with force either. The only viable option left for him is to rob the protests of their mission and their momentum by allowing chaos to reign in the streets. Indeed, this began on Saturday and has continued into today, as police and the army have withdrawn from residential areas and have allowed (encouraged?) gangs of thugs to loot stores and homes and attack ordinary citizens. In a parallel to Tunisia's uprising, neighborhood posses have formed to defend their communities from roving bands of looters and criminals.
To what degree the government is responsible for these mobs is uncertain, but it is clear that they are allowing the violence to happen in a bid to undermine the protests through chaos. Reports from all across the country indicate that police and the army have disappeared from the streets, leaving citizens to defend themselves. This seems to be Mubarak's only remaining option to stay in power; nothing else he has done thus far has worked.
It is unlikely that Hosni Mubarak can convince his public that his leadership is still better than anarchy, but if protestors have to stay home to defend their families, they cannot protest. This will obviously not solve the problem, however. What Mubarak does not seem to understand, or at any rate what he refuses to acknowledge, is that these protests are about him and his government. There is no bargaining with a people that are fed up with decades of incompetence, corruption, and disinterest in their needs and aspirations. Egypt reached a nationwide tipping point this week -- protestors will not settle for anything less than Mubarak's ouster. He is ready to dig in and fight, and I do not doubt he will use all tools at his disposal to remain in power. What happens next is anyone's guess -- but I am nearly convinced now that Mubarak is finished. If this turns out to be the case, then we will have arrived at a seminal moment in the history of the modern Middle East, and an extraordinary opportunity to transform the region.
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