It's Referendum Day in Egypt, and if this feels a little too soon to you, you are not alone. The short period of time between the public proposal of Egypt's constitutional amendments and a nationwide referendum is causing a great deal of anxiety in Egypt and among observers abroad. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has continued to forge ahead regardless, dropping subtle hints that they do not understand or care about the democratic process. The most tone deaf of these signs is probably their request for a cease of all media discussion of the referendum for the past 48 hours. I am not really sure where they got this idea, but it seems as if they are taking the "secret" part of secret ballot way too seriously.
I have already offered my take on the actual content of the amendments. However, the amendments themselves are not the only test of Egypt's prospects for democratization. The conduction of a poll presents several noteworthy problems. There have been many votes in Egypt in the post-1952 era, none resembling an orderly exercise of popular will. Elections are typically a chaotic affair, marked by widespread violence, fraud, and other kinds of foul play. The past two presidential elections were especially ugly, with dozens of people killed in each one.
But there are several important reasons to believe that the March 19 referendum will go differently. Not least among them is the fact that the referendum could be a win-win proposition for the military and established order, making foul play unnecessary for a favorable outcome. In the end, a "yes" or "no" vote should not dramatically weaken the position of these elements. The military almost certainly wants a yes vote, because it will lend them credibility while not threatening the fundamental structure of the state which gives them such privileged status. However, a no vote could still work to their advantage. If the amendments are rejected, the military might conclude that the constitution is fine the way it is. Even if the public does not tolerate such an outcome, the transition remains in the hands of the military, and they can offer more or less significant reforms at their discretion. Furthermore, debate over the reforms themselves causes division within the opposition, making the military relatively stronger and complicating efforts to mount pressure for a more serious commitment to democracy.
At the same time, the referendum contains some opportunities for the pro-reform camp. While the passing of the referendum creates numerous dangers and offers little in the way of true change, it also does not doom the opposition. Activist groups have proven their ability to mobilize masses of people and influence the military leadership, and it seems unlikely to me that this would become a non-factor if the referendum passed. Differences of opinion and tactics may limit the opposition's effectiveness, but I doubt they will to a great enough extent to marginalize the protest movement altogether.
Ultimately, the outcome of the referendum process as whole -- more so than the vote alone -- is crucial to a democratic transformation in Egypt. The poll's management so far has been decidedly undemocratic, as are the amendments under consideration. Yet both are improvements over the past, and they do not eliminate the opportunity for meaningful change down the road. Authoritarian elements are running out of moves in Egypt; trying to spoil this vote with the same kind of rigging and violence of past elections will not be accepted by the Egyptian people or the international community (of course, that does not mean they won't try). I expect this poll to be controversial, though probably not as blatantly fraudulent as last fall's parliamentary elections. In any case it will be dangerous indeed for the government to try to steal this vote.
While today's vote will most likely cloud Egypt's future even more, it may answer some important questions about the final intentions of the military (if they have those), the state of the opposition, and the prospects for democratization. There will be no definitive answers, but the outcome of the referendum will likely set the course for events over the next few months.
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