While the revolt in Tunisia inspired Egyptians and gave them a model for their own uprising, Tunisians are now closely watching events in Egypt and looking there for cues to their own transition. Tunisians have been upset that their country does not have the same clearly defined schedule for reforms as the Egyptians have (ironically, many activists in Egypt are very uneasy about the fast pace of planned reforms and feel that there is not sufficient time to install a true democracy). In the absence of change and a clear agenda for change, unrest and discontent are on the rise again. Protests have become larger again, and three demonstrators were killed in clashes over the weekend, prompting Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi's resignation. Ghannouchi's replacement is a former Bourguibist, 84 year-old Baji Caid Essebsi -- after a rumor that Essebsi asked all ministers considering a presidential run to leave the government, a flurry of resignations have further changed the cabinet. The influx of tens of thousands of refugees from Libya and the looming humanitarian crisis on the border provides another unneeded challenge for the embattled National Unity Government.
A course for reform remains obscure. Since the early days of the transition popular consensus has been for presidential elections to be held first, followed by constitutional reform, then parliamentary elections, and finally regional and municipal elections. Recently, the idea of asking a committee to redraft the constitution before presidential elections has gained traction -- President Fouad Mebezaa hinted at it in an announcement, and today July 24 was set as a date to elect a constituent assembly for the task. Calling elections and setting a schedule for reforms has been enthusiastically welcomed by the Tunisian public, which had been growing uneasy with the lack of changes and the continued stalling of the interim government.
Changing the Tunisian constitution is an absolutely essential step in transforming the Tunisian state, and holding elections to create the body charged with doing so demonstrates a commitment to democracy. It also presents a unique set of challenges. The precise rules governing the election are still unclear -- will voters select the assembly's 100 members by regional distribution? Who is eligible to serve on a constituent assembly? Will political parties and other associations be able to nominate candidates? Will the assembly have a deadline for its proposals? Who will supervise the elections?
As in Egypt, the new developments only make democracy more possible now than it was previously; ultimately they guarantee nothing. Yet the date for elections is the most unambiguous step toward reform in Tunisia yet, and there is little doubt that a new constitution would be an improvement over the old one. In both cases, recent events will not impede progress toward democratization, though they may not accelerate it either. In a part of the world where virtually all political developments for decades reinforced the old order, these new opportunities look promising.
The most encouraging development is perhaps the extent to which events in each country influence the other. Tunisians and Egyptians are both quite aware of what is happening in each other's country. They have been able to inform one another and shape the course of events among their neighbors. Tunisians helped teach the Egyptians ways to endure the regime crackdown against protestors, and inspired Egyptians to resist their government on an unprecedented scale. The implementation of a rigid schedule for reform and tangible steps toward a transition in Egypt spurred Tunisians to demand the same from their government. The development of a mutual Arab experience of democracy building is encouraging, and may have far-reaching impact at a time of great opportunity.
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