Ex-speech-tations

Tomorrow (Thursday, May 19) Barack Obama will deliver an address to the American people and the international community on events in the Arab world and American policy in the Middle East.  The speech is expected to touch on a wide range of issues, from the killing of Osama bin Laden to the democratic uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, to the Israel-Palestine conflict.  President Obama is expected to unveil a plan for economic aid to support democratic transitions in Egypt and Tunisia, and some are hoping he will articulate a clear strategy for the American approach to a changing Middle East.  In terms of specific policy, expectations are that the President will outline in some way a regional strategy for response to the democratic wave in the Arab world.  It is believed he will indicate the United States' position on the reconciliation deal between Fatah and Hamas in the Palestinian territories, and its effect on the Israel-Palestine conflict.

I do not know what the President will say tomorrow, but personally I am prepared for disappointment.  It will be a surprise to me if he actually goes into specific details on any of the current issues at play in the region, and even more if he announces a new strategic approach.  Still, it will be enlightening in other ways.  I will provide a full reaction to the speech after it is delivered, but for now, I will simply share what I would wish to hear from President Obama.  I understand that he cannot say many of the things I list below in a public speech, but I will be looking for indications that he or his administration understand them, and that they are employing a prudent and considered strategy to navigate the current challenges they face.

• The United States' relationships with Middle Eastern states is based on vital strategic interests.  For years these interests have been pursued with little regard for the health of Arab societies or the long-term sustainability of American-allied Arab regimes.  While this was often adequate to serve American interests, it has cased enormous systemic problems in the Arab world which can only be resolved by political and economic reform.  The uprisings of 2011 mark a historic milestone in the struggle of Arab peoples for liberty, dignity, and popular sovereignty.
• The United States can no longer ignore domestic politics in the Middle East.  The needs and aspirations of Arab peoples are legitimate and must be represented by their leaders.  The stability of the Arab world is paramount to American interests in the region, and the only basis for true stability over generations is effective, accountable governance.  
• In continuing to protect its interests and deepen relationships with its allies, the United States will stand unequivocally for the inalienable rights and dignity of the Arab people, and furthermore for all people across the globe.
• The overthrow of Zine el Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt is a historic opportunity to create flourishing democracies in the Arab world.  The United States will contribute to this effort with economic and technical assistance as necessary to ensure the success of the transitions currently underway.  This support is offered not to impose an American solution, but to allow the Tunisians and Egyptians the necessary means to fulfill the goals of their revolution.  No state can will itself to democracy; American assistance will ensure that the Tunisians and Egyptians do not need to.
• Regarding the United States' autocratic allies, American policy will seek opportunities for reform and will encourage governments to respond to the legitimate demands of their people.  In the past there has been too little pressure and too much complacency toward despotic rulers.  It is not the place of the United States to forcibly remove these rulers, but what leverage exists to promote reform will be fully utilized.  The United States will also support democratic activists and protect them as best it can from repression.
• The United States' response will be on a country by country basis and will often seem hypocritical.  However, in this time it is crucial to understand the unique circumstances of reform movements and individual governments' willingness to change.  Rather than operate on vague region-wide assumptions, policy will be determined by intimate knowledge of the country in question and the potential for American influence there.
• The United States cannot expect stability by allying itself with coercive and corrupt governments, and neither can Israel expect peace through coercion and subjugation of the Palestinian people.  It is a great wish of Americans and people throughout the world to see peace in Israel-Palestine, but it is clearly not the wish of important power brokers on both sides.  While the United States will do whatever it can to facilitate negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians, peace will not be possible until both sides are ready to make the necessary concessions.  The parameters of a two state solution are nearly unchanged since the 1970s; the major obstacle to peace is not lack of a reasonable solution, but the will of the parties involved to make political sacrifices.
• The United States, like all nations, designs its policy first and foremost to serve the interests of its people.  This is as true today in the Middle East as it is for any other region of the world at any other time in American history.  Today these interests are shared with the vast majority of Arab people: liberalization and protection of fundamental rights, political and social stability, economic progress, resistance to violent extremism, and peace in Israel and Palestine.  The United States will seek to cooperate with people throughout the Arab world to achieve these common goals.