Phar-Out -- Dawn of a New Era in Egypt?

Only hours after a speech in which Hosni Mubarak appeared rattled and confused but still determined as ever to endure to the bitter end, he was gone.  A terse statement from Vice President Omar Suleiman marked the first time an Egyptian president has voluntarily left his office.  All of a sudden, the formerly ironically-named Midan al-Tahrir (Liberation Square), the center of the largest protests at the heart of Cairo, became the very aptly-named Midan al-Tahrir.  Victory for the people of Egypt over their parasitic president and three-decade iron fist has finally arrived.

Egypt is left now in an extra-constitutional vacuum and there is no predicting what may happen next, but one would be hard pressed to find anyone who cares right now.  The moment is just too sweet to pay attention to anything else.

Like many Americans, I traveled to Egypt during college to study Arabic.  Besides the town where I grew up, I have lived in Egypt as long as I have lived anywhere in the world, and I cannot help but feel irrepressible joy upon the triumph of the protestors, many of whom are my friends, teachers, or teammates.  Less than a month ago, autocracy in Egypt seemed as permanent and immovable as the pyramids.  For years there was simply no hope for liberalization or any kind of positive change -- those in power helped themselves and artfully divided, co-opted, and repressed their opposition.

The system was obviously dysfunctional and ultimately untenable.  Still, the regime projected an air of immutability and destiny that nobody questioned.  Scholars almost universally acknowledged that Egypt was in serious need of reform, but stopped short of predicting a popular uprising such as the one that has materialized over the past weeks.  Though everybody saw something like it coming, nobody saw these events in particular.

The regional effect of Mubarak's departure will become clearer in the next few weeks.  Events in Egypt could have an even greater transformative potential than those in Tunisia.  However it is unlikely that there will be a linear response among Arab publics -- that is, one should not expect even more uprisings to occur now that would not have occurred had Tunisia been the only Arab state to overthrow its president.  The effect of Egypt's uprising will probably be more subtle, especially in the early stages.

With power now entirely in the hands of the military, Egypt is entering a transitional period.  The current environment, from a legal and political standpoint, is wide open.  Mubarak's bequest of leadership to his top officers is not constitutionally sanctioned, and the present constitution may become increasingly irrelevant if the military decides it is not necessary to shore up its own legitimacy.  At this point, there are infinite possible outcomes for the Egyptian state, and democracy is only one of them.  In short, the odds are against an ideal end to this sublime event, and it is important that reformers within Egypt and also from the international community act quickly and decisively to protect the rights and aspirations of the Egyptian people.

Today is the beginning of what may be a long and arduous struggle for the fate of Egypt, and perhaps even for the Arab world writ large.  But it is also the end of decades of corrupt and abusive rule that made Egypt a ward of international aid sustained by brutality and denial of human rights.  The Egyptian people's endeavor for freedom and self-determination is so natural, irreproachable, and just that it cannot be overlooked, no matter what momentous challenges linger just over the horizon.  There is still much work to be done, but what has already been accomplished is truly magnificent.